7–11 Dec 2026
The University of Sydney
Australia/Sydney timezone
AIP Congress 2026

Solar Flares: Automated Detection, Source Mapping, and an Analysis of Size-Waiting-Time Distributions and Correlations

Not scheduled
20m
Belinda Hutchinson Building (The University of Sydney )

Belinda Hutchinson Building

The University of Sydney

Abercrombie St & Codrington St NSW 2008
Contributed Oral AIP | Solar Terrestrial and Space Physics (STSP)

Speaker

Prof. Michael Wheatland (University of Sydney)

Description

We develop a Convolutional Neural Network (CNN)-based framework to improve solar flare identification from soft X-ray (SXR) observations and investigate flare size-waiting-time correlations, where by size we mean SXR peak flux. We study the statistical properties of solar flares both globally (i.e., across the solar disk) and locally (i.e., within individual active regions, ARs) and compare the results with previous studies. Our aim is to place the observations in the context of competing models of flare triggering and magnetic energy release. The CNN-based framework has established the most comprehensive record of solar flares to date, containing more than seven times as many events as existing catalogs. To associate the CNN-detected SXR events with their ARs of origin, we develop a probabilistic framework and use Solar Dynamics Observatory extreme ultraviolet images. A Bayesian blocks analysis of the waiting-time distributions indicates broad consistency with a piecewise Poisson process. Size-waiting-time correlations are evaluated using time symmetry tests (i.e., tests of the statistical equivalence of waiting times before and after a flare), the Spearman rank correlation, and the Efron-Petrosian test for truncated data. No statistically significant correlations between flare sizes and waiting times are detected in most studied ARs at most times, although specific instances of correlation are identified in some regions. We show that previously reported correlations between flare sizes and waiting times are significantly influenced by obscuration, that is, under-counting weaker or overlapping flares during periods of elevated flux.

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Authors

Prof. Andrew Melatos (University of Melbourne) Prof. Michael Wheatland (University of Sydney) Nastaran Farhang (University of Sydney)

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