Aug 17 – 21, 2026
National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil
America/Sao_Paulo timezone

A Machine Learning System for Implementing an Interplanetary Kp Model for Space Weather Monitoring

Not scheduled
10m
Fernando de Mendonça - LIT (National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil)

Fernando de Mendonça - LIT

National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil

Av. dos Astronautas, 1758 - Jardim da Granja, São José dos Campos - SP, 12227-010
Poster Machine Learning in Space, Earth & Atmospheric Sciences Poster Session

Speaker

Daniele da Silva Ferreira Medeiros (CBJLSW/INPE)

Description

The planetary Kp index is one of the main indicators used to monitor geomagnetic activity. The official Kp index is reported only at 3 hour intervals, making it difficult to resolve rapid changes in geomagnetic activity driven by solar wind variability. In this work, we present a machine learning model developed to estimate the Kp index with a temporal resolution of one minute using interplanetary solar wind data. The model was trained using historical Kp values together with solar wind parameters, including the interplanetary magnetic field, solar wind speed, and proton density. A Random Forest regression algorithm was selected because it efficiently captures the nonlinear relationship between solar wind conditions and geomagnetic activity. The proposed model provides a continuous estimate of Kp, allowing a more detailed visualization of geomagnetic variations than the official 3 hour index. The system can also operate with near-real-time solar wind measurements, making it suitable for space weather monitoring and future forecasting applications. These results demonstrate the potential of machine learning techniques to improve the temporal representation of geomagnetic activity and to support operational space weather studies.

Author

Co-authors

Joaquim Costa (INPE - National Institute for Space Research) Dr Chi Wang (State Key Laboratory for Space Weather, National Space Science Center, Chinese Academy of Sciences) Luis Eduardo Antunes Vieira (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) PAULO RICARDO JAUER (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais INPE) Ivana Yoshie Sumida (INPE) Vitor Moura Cardoso e Silva Souza (Federal Institute of Education, Science and Technology of Bahia) Dr Karen Espinosa (National Institute for Space Research) Carolina de Sousa do Carmo (CBJLSW/INPE) Dr Alexandre José (National Institute for Space Research) Walter Gonzalez Rodolfo de Jesus (Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais) Dr Luiz Fillip (China-Brazil Joint Laboratory for Space Weather, National Institute for Space Research) Hui Li (State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center/Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China) Zhengkuan Liu (State Key Laboratory of Space Weather, National Space Science Center/Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China)

Presentation materials

There are no materials yet.