GSST/CBERS-5 International Symposium on Machine Learning in Heliophysics and Space Weather

Impacts of Space Weather on the Orbital Decay of the Amazonia-1 Satellite During Solar Cycle 25

Not scheduled

20m

Fernando de Mendonça - LIT (National Institute for Space Research, São José dos Campos, SP, Brazil)

Oral Space Weather Forecasting & Operations Oral Contributions

Speaker

Leonardo Molliet

Description

Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites, such as Brazil’s Amazonia-1, are subject to atmospheric drag resulting from
variations in thermospheric density, which intensify during periods of elevated solar activity. This study
investigates how space weather phenomena—specifically geomagnetic storms and solar flares—influence the
orbital decay of Amazonia-1 between 2021 and 2023. Real orbital data (TLEs), Dst geomagnetic indices, and
GOES flare records were analyzed. The dataset was segmented into distinct periods, and monthly average altitudes
were calculated to identify correlations between orbital decay and solar activity. Results indicate that both
geomagnetic storms and X/M-class flares significantly contribute to atmospheric densification and drag,
particularly when such events occur continuously. In some periods, monthly altitude loss exceeded 110 meters.
These findings underscore that during the active phases of Solar Cycle 25, increased drag compromises satellite
orbital stability. This highlights the necessity of integrating space weather considerations into satellite mission
design and planning. The study reinforces the value of continuous monitoring and predictive modeling of
thermospheric behavior to enhance the resilience and longevity of LEO missions.