Speaker
Description
Amos, O. O.
Anambra State Polytechnic, Mgbakwu
obuikemokoli@gmail.com
Track: Digital Transformation in Higher Education
OKOLI, OBUIKEM A1, and OKOLI, OBIAGELI E2
1GNS Unit, Anambra State Polytechnic, Mgbakwu. Anambra State, Nigeria
Email: obuikemokoli@gmail.com
2Department of Banking and Finance, Federal Polytechnic, Oko. Anambra State, Nigeria
Email: obiageli.okoli@fedpoly.edu.ng
Abstract
Digital inequality poses a systemic educational risk to African higher education. This paper introduces an actuarial-predictive framework that treats disparities in digital access, infrastructure, and skills as quantifiable risk exposures. Employing survival analysis, generalized linear models, and stochastic loss processes, the framework estimates the probability, severity and evolution of learning disadvantage. It generates risk metrics such as expected educational shortfall and value-at-risk of learning loss, together with forward-looking policy scenarios. Results show that targeted digital investments can be optimized as risk-mitigation strategies, substantially reducing projected inequality. The approach equips planners with a rigorous mathematical tool for resource prioritization and the design of resilient, future-ready higher education ecosystems.
Keywords: digital inequality; educational risk; actuarial modelling; higher education; survival analysis