Description
Over the past century, the Earth has experienced a rise in global temperatures as a result of climate change. If this trend continues, it becomes increasingly relevant to understand how this would affect large-scale atmospheric circulation. The effects of this trend are highlighted in locations like the Arctic, where the warming in this region is increasing at a faster rate than the global average. This amplified warming, also known as Arctic amplification, can have an impact on mid-latitude weather patterns. The results of Arctic amplification on large-scale atmospheric circulation has been theorized by many. A popular conclusion is that an increase in Arctic amplification would lead to a reduction of the global temperature gradient that exists between the poles and the equator. The consequences of this would be weaker upper-level flow and, therefore, weaker atmospheric jets in the mid-latitudes. This work aims to utilize a numerical model to understand the effects that global warming can have on mid-latitude atmospheric dynamics by comparing a base state scenario to one that reflects a future atmosphere that has experienced Arctic amplification. The idealized baroclinic wave test case implemented by the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A), is used to simulate both the base state and the warmed-atmosphere environments. To demonstrate future climate conditions, the meridional temperature gradient in the model is modified to match an environment affected by years of Arctic amplification. By comparing the two scenarios, this work is expected to support previous conclusions and set up the framework for future investigation.