27th IEEE Symposium on Fusion Engineering

STOCHASTIC COST ANALYSIS OF STEADY STATE AND PULSED DEMO-LIKE FUSION POWER PLANTS

6 Jun 2017, 13:40

2h

Junior Ballroom

Board: 64

Poster Next step devices, DEMO, power plants T.POS: Poster Session T

Speaker

Prof. Giuseppe Zollino (Consorzio RFX (CNR, ENEA, INFN, Università di Padova, Acciaierie Venete SpA), University of Padova, Department of Industrial Engineering )

Description

The debate on which will be the operative mode of a future commercial fusion power plant, steady state or pulsed, is still open even in the on going pre-conceptual design phase of the European demonstration power plant, DEMO.

As part of a series of studies on the economics of alternative options of commercial fusion power plant carried out with the FRESCO (Fusion Reactors Simplified Cost) code, the work here presented provides further insights on the issue.

FRESCO is based on simplified models of physics, engineering and economics of a TOKAMAK-like pulsed or steady state fusion power plant. While the model of the BoP (Balance of plant) is derived from the PPCS study and is usually kept fixed, the assumptions on the plasma physics and technological choices can be adapted to the case of study. The assessment of the economics of the power plant is aimed at estimating the effects of specific plant features on the cost of electricity (COE) rather than formulating forecasts. Then, stochastic analyses based on the Monte Carlo method are carried out in order to assess the weight on the COE of uncertainties on multiple aspects (e.g. on the costs of both raw materials and components themselves, on the actual lifetime of plasma facing components and the power plant as a whole, on the power plant financing, and so on).

Two alternative DEMO-like power plants are modelled with FRESCO. Both provide 500MWe power and rely on the same plasma model as the pulsed DEMO1 and the steady state DEMO2, the current European design options. As an extension of the previous analyses carried out with FRESCO, which estimated the effects of the pulse duration and H&CD efficiency on the COE of a pulsed power plant, here the effects of the uncertainties related to each specific operative mode are evaluated through stochastic analyses. For example, the uncertainties on the maximum number of cycles the power plant components can withstand deeply affect the COE range. Discussions on which conditions could lower the COE are provided along with considerations on the related probability of this event to occur.