2016 CAP Congress / Congrès de l'ACP 2016

Session

M2-6 Theory, Modelling, and Forecasting II (DASP) / Théorie, modélisation et prévisions II (DPAE)

M2-6

13 Jun 2016, 13:00

University of Ottawa

Conveners

M2-6 Theory, Modelling, and Forecasting II (DASP) / Théorie, modélisation et prévisions II (DPAE)

• patrick perron (RMCC)

1094. Harnessing butterflies for climate closure and for improved monthly, seasonal, and interannual forecasts

Shaun Lovejoy (McGill University)

13/06/2016, 13:00

Atmospheric and Space Physics / Physique atmosphérique et de l'espace (DASP-DPAE)

Invited Speaker / Conférencier invité

Although the butterfly effect – sensitive dependence on initial conditions - fundamental limits deterministic weather forecasting to horizons of about 10 days, it has not prevented deterministic Global Circulation Models (GCM’s) from being used way past this limit for monthly, seasonal and interannual forecasts. When such models are used for these longer term “macroweather” forecasts, they...

1061. The importance of an accurate magnetic field for the estimation of Faraday rotation from total electron content.

Alex Cushley

13/06/2016, 13:30

Atmospheric and Space Physics / Physique atmosphérique et de l'espace (DASP-DPAE)

Oral (Student, In Competition) / Orale (Étudiant(e), inscrit à la compétition)

A plane polarized wave that propagates through a plasma, parallel to a magnetic field, suffers a gradual rotation of its plane of polarization called Faraday rotation. Likewise, radio beacon signals that traverse the ionospheric plasma encounter a parallel component of Earths geomagnetic field and the anisotropy of the medium. Many authors use the average value of the parallel magnetic field...

1010. The Empirical Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Model (E-CHAIM): NmF2 and hmF2 specification

David Themens (University of New Brunswick)

13/06/2016, 13:45

Atmospheric and Space Physics / Physique atmosphérique et de l'espace (DASP-DPAE)

Oral (Student, In Competition) / Orale (Étudiant(e), inscrit à la compétition)

It is well known that the IRI suffers reduced accuracy in its representation of monthly median ionospheric variability at high latitudes (Themens et al. 2014, Themens et al. 2016). These inaccuracies are believed to stem from a historical lack of data from these regions. Now, roughly thirty and forty years after the development of the original URSI and CCIR foF2 maps, respectively, there...

1167. Calculation and Analysis of High Rate Total Electron Content in the Canadian High Arctic

Anthony McCaffrey (University of New Brunswick)

13/06/2016, 14:00

Atmospheric and Space Physics / Physique atmosphérique et de l'espace (DASP-DPAE)

Oral (Student, In Competition) / Orale (Étudiant(e), inscrit à la compétition)

The Canadian High Arctic Ionospheric Network (CHAIN) [1] includes Global Positioning System (GPS) receivers capable of sampling specific observables at very high rates, up to 100 Hz. With these high rate observables, 100 Hz Total Electron Content (TEC), and Rate of TEC index (ROTI), can be calculated. This study outlines the methods and limitations of calculating both relative and absolute 100...

1123. A Neural Network (NN)-based foF2 model for a single station in the polar cap

Racheal Athieno (University of New Brunswick)

13/06/2016, 14:15

Atmospheric and Space Physics / Physique atmosphérique et de l'espace (DASP-DPAE)

Oral (Student, In Competition) / Orale (Étudiant(e), inscrit à la compétition)

The work on neural networks (NN) by several authors has shown promising results in modeling nonlinear and complex processes in the near Earth space. For instance, NN-based models have been developed to forecast solar and magnetic activity indices, and different ionospheric parameters. However, the developed models have been faced with the challenge of data paucity in the polar region, a major...