ACME - Multi-Messenger Inference with Bilby: From Gravitational Waves to the Hubble Constant

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Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)
Description

This hands-on tutorial explores how gravitational-wave and electromagnetic observations can be combined within a Bayesian framework to infer source properties and constrain the Hubble constant.

Building on gravitational-wave parameter estimation with Bilby (tutorial of 29 October), participants work through a guided analysis inspired by the binary neutron-star merger GW170817. The tutorial begins with the degeneracy between luminosity distance and binary inclination, examining how electromagnetic information can improve these measurements. Using prepared gravitational-wave posterior samples and simplified electromagnetic models, participants construct joint analyses, identify shared parameters, and account consistently for prior assumptions. Particular attention is given to the conditions under which observations can be combined, the avoidance of double-counting information, and the dependence of inferred constraints on assumptions about source geometry.

The analysis then extends to standard-siren cosmology: combining gravitational-wave distance information with the redshift of a host galaxy to infer the Hubble constant, including uncertainty from peculiar velocities. Through controlled variations of the electromagnetic constraints and modelling assumptions, participants investigate how statistical uncertainties and systematic effects propagate into the cosmological result, and how selection effects enter when many events are combined.

The goal is to provide a practical understanding of multi-messenger inference and enable participants to build, interpret, and critically assess joint analyses with Bilby.


  • 09:30 Welcome, ACME introduction, environment check.
  • 09:45 Lecture — combining observations, double counting, standard sirens.
  • 10:30 Lab 1 — the distance–inclination degeneracy.
  • 11:00 Lab 2 — an electromagnetic constraint on the viewing angle.
  • 11:45–12:00 Break.
  • 12:00 Lab 3 — the Hubble constant from one event.
  • 12:55 Lab 4 — many sirens and the selection effect.
  • 13:15 Wrap-up and closing discussion.

Note: times are indicative.

Preparation. Same environment as the tutorial of 29 October (uv, Python 3.11, bilby==2.8.0, lalsuite, gwpy, dynesty; on Windows use WSL). Scripts and the prepared posterior samples will be attached to this page. The connection link is sent by email to registered participants.


    • 09:30 → 09:45
      Welcome, ACME introduction, environment check 15m

      ACME project slides; check of the Python environment.

      Speaker: Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)
    • 09:45 → 10:30
      Lecture: combining observations and standard sirens 45m

      Distance-inclination degeneracy; joint inference with shared parameters; reusing posterior samples (reweighting, KDE likelihoods) and double counting; standard sirens, peculiar velocities, priors on D_L and H0; selection effects.

      Speaker: Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)
    • 10:30 → 11:00
      Lab 1: the distance-inclination degeneracy 30m

      01_distance_inclination.py: toy amplitude model sampled with Bilby, compared with GW170817-like posterior samples.

      Speaker: Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)
    • 11:00 → 11:45
      Lab 2: an electromagnetic constraint on the viewing angle 45m

      02_em_viewing_angle.py: reweighting and joint Bilby run; the two forms of double counting; jet misalignment.

      Speaker: Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)
    • 11:45 → 12:00
      Break 15m
    • 12:00 → 12:55
      Lab 3: the Hubble constant from one event 55m

      03_hubble.py: H0 from GW only and GW+EM; peculiar velocities, distance and H0 priors; joint sampling over (H0, D_L, cos theta_JN, v_p).

      Speaker: Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)
    • 12:55 → 13:15
      Lab 4: many sirens and the selection effect 20m

      04_siren_population.py: scaling with the number of events; bias from neglecting selection effects.

      Speaker: Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)
    • 13:15 → 13:30
      Wrap-up and closing discussion 15m

      Dark and spectral sirens, systematics that do not average away; ticketing system and survey.

      Speaker: Giancarlo Cella (INFN Pisa)