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Abstract
This work presents an analysis and prediction for orbital elements of the Jason-3 satellite, based on precise optical observations. Using a combination of orbit determination techniques and numerical propagation methods, we examine the Keplerian and osculating orbital elements of Jason-3, with particular attention to perturbations arising from Earth's non-spherical gravitational field and lunisolar gravitational influences. The evolution of key parameters is characterized through both analytical and numerical frameworks. Results reveal systematic trends consistent with the satellite's near-circular, non-sun-synchronous orbit at approximately 1,336 km altitude. Long-term propagation simulations are validated against archived two-line element (TLE) sets and precise ephemeris data, demonstrating strong agreement in element prediction accuracy. This work contributes to a broader understanding of the dynamical environment experienced by medium-altitude Earth observation satellites.